Local journalist calls the outcome of tomorrow’s general election

OUR Journalist Joe Barrett has reported on every town commission, town council, county council, general election and referendum count that have been held in either Laois or in Offaly over the past 25-years.

Without fail he’s put his neck on the proverbial chopping block by giving his predictions on their outcomes.

He’s again risking life and limb on the outcome of tomorrow’s general election in Laois.

“Sometimes I get it right, but mostly I get it wrong.

This time around I will definitely get some of it right and predict that from the 12 runners in the race, nine will not be elected! So here’s who I predict will take the three seats on offer.

So with everyone ponying up their €500 to enter the race here’s what I predict:

Elaine Mullally might be known for her political and other national organisations activities, she’s little known outside her home town of Port. She’s do well but will fall short.

Mary Hand from Aontú unsuccessfully contested the 2019 local election in Carlow under the surname of Hande. Would be known in the Graiguecullen area but not much of a reach outside of that. Can’t see her getting elected.

The former Fianna Fáil councillor Pauline Flanagan is going it alone this time around as an Independent candidate. I can’t see her putting too much pressure on the fancy front runners.

I can’t see Jason Lynch getting elected either. While he might be an avid observer of current affairs and mainly campaigning on line, it won’t take long in the count centre until he’s eliminated.

Likewise with the People Before Profit/Solidarity candidate Ken Mooney. There’s been no hide nor hair of him since he announced he was contesting the election.

Rosie Palmer from the Green Party. Her party seems to be getting a bit of a kicking on the doorsteps in rural areas and I fear Rosie will be going home early from the count centre as well.

Maria McCormack will be hoping to capsulise on the Sinn Féin spit in Laois and no doubt will hope to retain some of the massive vote that her former party colleague Brian Stanley amassed in the last general election. However she too will fall short of the line.

Austin Stack was a late edition to the Fianna Fáil ticket. I feel he was added as a sweeper for Sean Fleming in the Portlaoise area and predict he too won’t stay the distance.

That then leaves four.

Brian Stanley and Aisling Moran, both Independent candidates, Sean Fleming (FF) and the wily Willie Aird (FG).

This is the way I see it.

Aird will top the poll. But won’t get elected on the first count. Stanley will be the runner up. There’ll be a battle royale for the third and final seat between the other two.

With so many politically diverse candidates being eliminated early on in the race their preferences will be spread all over the place and won’t suit either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. Stanley will lose some of his former party’s support, but his name recognition should see him do well enough. Moran should pick up a lot of these scattered preferences.

I feel there’s a bit of a backlash locally against Fianna Fáil and this will effect Fleming. While strong in rural areas of the county, he’ll find it hard getting traction from new voters in the large towns of Portarlington, Graiguecullen and Portlaoise.

Moran is running a savvy campaign and pulled a good one when she enlisted well-known local councillors James Kelly, Ben Brennan and Tommy Mulligan to join her campaign team.

If push comes to shove, I’d give the last seat to Fleming, by a whisker, after a recount.